Sterling endured a relatively quiet week with the main mover coming from the UK Markit Services PMI data on Thursday coming in below expected and sparking concerns that the UK gross Domestic Product may dip to 0.3% for Q1. This has put the Pound under pressure and kept rates stable with GBP/EUR trading between 1.1470 and 1.1368 for the week. For the week ahead, the main mover for Sterling will be the Data release for the Industrial Production and Manufacturing Production for February giving investors more information as to how the UK economy has performed in Q1.
Last week saw a negative week for the single currency as PMI data came in below expected. This disappointed investors and Europe is now showing signs that it is losing some of it’s economic momentum. Europe’s consumer price index for March also came in below expected at 1.0% from 1.1%, EUR/USD traded between 1.2340 and 1.2250 reaching 2-week lows. Europe’s biggest mover for the week ahead will be on Thursday with the ECB Monetary Policy Meeting and industrial production data for February. Industrial Production is expected to come in at 0.5% but after negative news this week Markets will be keeping an eye on this to see if the Eurozone economy is losing its momentum further.
Non-farms and unemployment rate came in below expected on Friday and the Greenbank weakened on the back of this. This could see the FED doing one less rate hike than expected. The continued talk of trade war between the US and China has done little to affect the FX market Keeping the Dollar stable for most of last week. GBP/USD traded between 1.4096 and dipped below 1.40 at 1.3977. The Dollar is expected to remain under pressure this week with little economic data being released and markets focused on the developments on the trade war between the US and China. With the Dollar to remain under pressure this week now would be a good time to be selling Dollars especially as EUR/USD has hit 2 week lows.
Data for the week ahead
Wed – GBP Industrial Production (Feb)
Wed – GBP Manufacturing Production (Feb)
Wed – EUR ECB President Draghi Speech
Thu – EUR ECB Monetary Policy Meeting
Thu – EUR Industrial Production (Feb)